If you have been watching the headlines lately, the weather has been doing some unusual things. In late October, record-breaking king tides pushed ocean water into streets and businesses along parts of the California coast, with some spots seeing water more than two feet above normally dry ground. In mid-October, flash flooding in Oak Creek Canyon near Sedona left dozens of campers stranded when a bridge went underwater. Forecasters are watching all of this against the backdrop of a very strong El Niño. Here is what that means if you are planning a trip.

What Is El Niño, and Why Should Travelers Care?

El Niño is a pattern of warmer-than-normal water in the Pacific Ocean that shifts storm tracks around the world. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says in its latest update that there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter, and a 75% chance it becomes historic for October through December. Its effects tend to show up most in winter, and one AccuWeather meteorologist told Afar that El Niño conditions could linger into 2027.

Where You May Feel It Most

No forecast is a guarantee, but here is what the experts are pointing to:

• California and the West Coast. AccuWeather expects the worst travel impacts here, per Time Out: recurring storms starting in Central and Northern California, reaching Los Angeles and San Diego later in the season. Think heavy rain, landslides, coastal flooding, high winds and mountain road closures.
• The Gulf Coast and Southeast. A stronger southern storm track means a higher risk of flooding rain and severe weather.
• The Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest. Expected to see less snow than usual, though the forecaster cautioned that it only takes one storm to change the picture, with late January and February the windows to watch.
• Ski country. Western resorts are expected to do well. Popular eastern ski areas may struggle for snow.
• Sun destinations. The Caribbean should mostly be fine because the main storm track is expected to stay north. Hawai’i should trend drier, with possible rough surf on north-facing shores.
• Europe. Winter windstorms are more common in places like France, the UK and the Netherlands, while the Mediterranean tends to be a bit wetter and cooler.

A Word About Sedona and Other Flood-Prone Spots

Sedona is still open and still beautiful. But creeks can rise fast, and after wildfire-related flooding this summer, public access to parts of Oak Creek was closed at one point. One stranded camper told KTAR they had been watching the rain and never saw the creek rise before they woke to a blocked bridge. The lesson is that conditions upstream matter, not just what you see where you are standing. If you are heading to a canyon, creek-side stay or campground, ask about access roads and crossings, and check closures before you go.

How to Plan Smart This Winter

• Build in buffer days. Avoid tight connections and consider arriving a day early for flights, cruises and events.
• Look at where you will sleep. For coastal stays, check tide tables. San Mateo County Parks lists king tide windows of Nov. 21 to 28, Dec. 20 to 27 and Jan. 17 to 24. Other areas have their own schedules.
• Expect cruise itineraries to flex. One Afar writer’s North Atlantic cruise skipped most ports after rough seas made tendering unsafe. Ask what happens if your ports change.
• Know your cancellation terms before you pay, and keep your plans flexible where you can.
• Protect your trip early. Faye notes its Cancel For Any Reason add-on is available if purchased within 14 days of your initial trip deposit. Read the policy’s weather rules before you buy, since coverage can depend on timing. I recommend getting a Faye quote as soon as you book, and you can read more on my travel insurance page.

Let Me Do the Worrying

You should not have to track storm tracks and tide charts on top of planning a vacation. As a certified Fora Travel Advisor, I can help you pick the right destination and dates for the season, and I am here if plans need to change. Prefer to browse hotels yourself? Use my Fora client portal and reach out anytime for help. Looking at a sailing? Visit my Cruises page. When you are ready for a trip planned around the weather, Book with Me.

Forecasts and conditions change often. Please confirm current weather, closures and availability before you travel.

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